Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Stocks up, bonds fall

Its as if the the earthquake in Japan never happened, the way we have bounced hard in the stocks.
I was thinking that we would come of a bit more which would give some nice opps to get into some beaten stocks, but it didn't really materialise and we seem to be going up everyday.
The portfolio is holding up pretty well as of now, SAFT is not really made a move one way or the other for the past few days. I'm looking to sell half BIDU at 138-139, if it gets up there.

As far as futures go, looks like volatility has dropped in STIRs, as its been low volume churning the past few days. Hopefully things pick up again in April, as a potential rate rise looms.

Monday, 21 March 2011

Stock Buy: HITT

I have just initiated a long position in HITT today at 58.70, after seeing the stock rebound of 56 support. The stock has short interest standing at over a million shares, so given that its a low volume stock, a further rally could lead to some further short covering that could help fuel the stock higher. But at the same time given the big bounce generally in equities I wouldn't be surprised if we see some selling pressure again before we head higher.

Entry: 58.70
Exit >65
Stop: 55

Friday, 18 March 2011

Stock buy: SAFT

I opened a new position long today in SAFT, today at 45.34. Entry could have been slightly better, but the stock has support at 44, which is resting on the 200 day moving average, hopefully it will hold around here and bounce, but a drop below this will force me to bail.

ENTRY: 45.34
Stop: >44

Thursday, 17 March 2011

Dead cat bounce?

Markets rallied today as traders snapped bargains. I personally am on the sidelines at the moment as events unfold and see if this weeks pullback was just an excuse to take profit or a whether this rally was a dead cat bounce. The positions I got out of on Tuesday have all rallied significantly, and in hind site should of just held out. But no real damage was done I guess.
Today we had strong manufacturing data from Philadelphia and a sustained Jobless number under the 400k mark which helped sustain the market rally.
Bonds fell heavily with the short end coming off sharply after big gains this weak. Spreads have widened at the front as we continued to drop off. ECB officials still state that they remain vigilant and that the situation regarding rates hasn't changed, although I cant see them moving on rates in the next month due to the Japan disaster.
Tomorrow we have a quiet day on the data front, but on going situation in Japan will be enough to keep the market lively.

Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Trading update

Stocks have come off there lows and Bonds have come well of there highs, as things settle down slightly before the FOMC rate decision tonight. This has hands down been one of the busiest days Ive seen in the markets for a long while, and hopefully this volatility continues.

My sell in ATNI was just royal f*** up, as it went to trade higher by a further 2.5%, very bad timing on that and in hind site the fact that it was up on a big down day was the biggest clue that I should have held it. But you live and learn.
After my sell in AGCO as well I only have one open position in BIDU. I really do think these markets will come off more so I think I will have good opportunities later on. The effect of the quake and the possible nuclear consequences I think will weigh to much on stocks. Time will tell

Close position: AGCO

Closed AGCO at 49.88. I just think this stock shows alot of weakness when indices are down so given that we have clearly reversed the up trend, I just bailed.

Closing ATNI

Just closed ATNI at 32.72, this showed very good strength amongst the weakness, and I'm quietly hoping this gets pushed down a bit and I will re-enter at a better price.

Preparing for the Carnage!

I imagine many portfolios will be getting hammered today and no least mine, regardless of what it is we are going to see some heavy losses today. Now the question is will this be a short term thing or where we going to feel the repercussions of this for some time to come. We are gaping down 3-5% on many indices and so I think the best course is let all the weak holders get out, then see if there is some sort of rally to maybe find a good price t get out on some as ideally I would like to have minimal exposure, and react on a day to day basis rather then try to second guess what going to happen next.
Markets have been extremely busy this morning we massive volume and volatility pushing these markets around. Fixed income is expectedly very bid although spreads have been ranging nicely. For a day trader these are very good markets as there is plenty of opportunity around to scalp in and out.
Not much in the way of data today so it will all be about developments in Japan.

Monday, 14 March 2011

Closed remaining SWHC

I closed the second half of SWHC at 3.53 on the market open. I was very annoyed to find SWHC getting smacked 10% on Friday, but that's the way it goes sometimes, and I was glad I managed to take half of earlier so still made some profit.

Markets seem to have resisted the downward onslaught some might expect from the earthquake disaster, but I don't want to hold too much long right now, so might look to close out AGCO soon as its showing quite a bit of overall weakness recently. Will be keeping a close eye.

Thursday, 10 March 2011

Stocks Fall, is the tide turning?

I've always gone by the saying trade what you see not what you think, and I see things reversing. We are having more heavy down days, lead by big losses in the Nasdaq especially. Im currently long 4 stocks in the portfolio, and AGCO seems to just move with the market having been up 10% on this I'm almost flat, I'm trying to let things run but in this case didn't work out. I'm looking to short but haven't found anything I like yet so still on sidelines on that.
After the curve shifting last week, spreads have stayed very steady this week with not much volatility which was disappointing given Trichets remarks last week. Its been difficult to leg in and out of spreads with much fluency.
So all in all been a relatively quiet week, although I did trade NZD rate decision and manage to get short and take a few pips which was one of the upside moments.
Tomorrow we have CAD employment and US retail sales for catalyst for the markets, hopefully they will be good.

Monday, 7 March 2011

Stock buy: ATNI

I initiated a long position in ATNI today, after seeing the stock get clobbered in the last few days, and breach the 200- day moving average. Looking at past occurrences of this its shown a good tendency to bounce, so I've put my neck on the line and gone with a bounce, but ill be looking to bail if it does materialize within the next month. The stock has a short interest ratio to stock float ratio of 6.2% and given this isn't actively traded it can push this up if a bounce occurs.

Entry: 31.19
Stop :28
Target 37

Friday, 4 March 2011

Close position: NTCT

Closed NTCT today at 27.02 for a loss. The trade initially worked being 5% + onside before gaining strength on an upgrade and has rallied on both down days this week, which signals the end for this one. Will be looking out for further shorts still, as we are looking top heavy here.

European Bond Yield Curve flattens after Hawkish Trichet

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB may raise interest rates next month to fight accelerating inflation pressures. An “increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible,” he told reporters in Frankfurt today after the central bank left its key rate at a record low of 1 percent. “Strong vigilance is warranted,” Trichet said, adding that any increase would not necessarily be the start of a “series” of moves.

The trading during the press conference was some of the busiest Ive seen in ages, real volatility and action. Sadly I didn't really maximise my opportunity by getting in on the back of the STRONG VIGILANCE statement, which was really a clean up opportunity, as Bunds fell 40 ticks on that, Schatz drop 15 fat tick, and Euro rallied 100 ticks. I was working some bids in the Euribor (stupidly I might add) as the comment came and found myself quite a bit offside quite quickly. But the beauty of a busy market that that it gives the opportunity to make your day back, and I was able to keep shorting spreads as the Yield curve flattened, whilst churning alot of roundies.

Short end got smacked as short term expectation for a rate rise rose as long term expectations remain similar this lead to aggressive flattening across the curve.
This is also lead to relative strength in the ftse and US markets as they pushed into these markets at the expense of the European Bourses.

We had a very strong day in the US markets, and as a result my short in NTCT looks finished, ill be looking to exit today regardless of what happens.

I expect us to be range bound till nonfarm payrolls later today. Could be a very whippy one, so watch out.

Wednesday, 2 March 2011

Portfolio update: AGCO, SWHC, NTCT, BIDU

Markets have rallied today after yesterdays heavy sell of, its touch and go whether we will sustain this or come off more. Looking at a whole handful of stock, and none of them are compelling enough to get into at the moment.
AGCO has given back 5% since its peak a week back, and looks like its consolidating in this area. I will just hold this unless it breaks lower.
NTCT looks strong and I'm ready to bail on any further big move up.
SWHC looks to be consolidating too after its run from its lows.
BIDU is still deciding which way to go, up hopefully!

Tuesday, 1 March 2011

Bund rises on oil worries and profit taking.

Stocks slide as tensions grew in the middle east, and the high price of oil. Bonds ended near the highs after being down earlier on with the Bund trading at 124.23 after earlier dipping below 124.
Short sterling was moving around a bit as the inflation hearing was coming out sporadically during the day.
As far as the portfolio goes, pretty rough day as all my longs are down and my short is up 5% plus, I'm ready to bail on NTCT if it has another push higher as it looks like the initial downside was just an opportunity to buy and unfortunately I didn't get out. You live and learn!
Elsewhere I'm hoping the downside provides some further opportunities to get into a position.

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...