Monday, 30 May 2011

Close position: IDXX

Closed my position in IDXX on Friday for a small gain, this was looking for a short term bounce and made just over 1/2 percent. Nothing great but better then nothing I guess.

Entry: 77.81
Exit: 78.37

Tuesday, 24 May 2011

Stock buy: IDEXX

Idexx has broken below the lower bollinger, and historically when this condition is true it has been known to snap back somewhat. But if it doesnt happen straight away I'll be bailing. Im looking for a bounce the next few days.

ENTRY: 77.81
Exit: On 27th may

Portfolio

Close Position: TAP

At the time i was looking for a short term bounce for this share, and It got it, now it seems to be stalling figuring out where its going next, although it looks like it could continue to go higher, The market in general seems weak so thought it would be best to bail.

ENTRY: 44.45
EXIT 46.15

Monday, 23 May 2011

Close position: SAFT

Closed my position in SAFT today at 45. This has been aimlessly meandering sideways and although it may break at some point, with the slight bearish tone to the market I rather just close it out for a small loss.

Entry: 45.34
Exit:45.00

Monday, 16 May 2011

Stock buy: RIMM

I initiated a long position in RIMM today, looking for a bounce after a 25% monthly sell off. The RSI is very oversold here. We have had increasing short interest over the past month and so any sign of a snap back my lead to some short covering. I'm only in this for max a couple of weeks, if we haven't bounced by then I'm out.

Entry: 43.19
STOP: 40
Target 47+

Friday, 13 May 2011

Closing BTU

Had to bail on BTU today taking a pretty big loss as there's no love for commodity related shares at the moment, and its hard to know how big this correction is going to be. With the Greek issues and surging dollar putting pressure on OIL and other commodities I thought it be best to take the hit on this and look for something better. Its been a mega losing week for the Euro as we breached 1.41 today, I haven't seen such a heft fall in a long time. We have literally dropped 900 pips in a week on the Euro/dollar. Hopefully some good opps present themselves next week.

BTU entry: 64.80
Exit: 58.30

Friday, 6 May 2011

Euro smashed as talks of Greece leaving the Euro Zone

Its certainly been an eventful couple of days in the market, starting yesterday with the ECB not mentioning any immanent rate hike talk leading to a massive rally in bonds and a 200 pip drop in the EUR/USD. Spreads steepened as near term rate hikes were looking less likely as cyclical data doesn't support the notion that we are in a full recovery. We had a 30 fat tick jump in the Schatz as traders bet that we wouldn't get another rate hike till at least after June.

Today we had non farm payrolls which surprised to the upside as there was an upside surprise to the number of jobs created. Bunds fell 28 ticks on the number but we faded back as the unemployment rate rose to 9% and talk of Greece exiting to Euro.

As I write now the Euro is getting pounded hard, for the biggest 2 day drop since march 2010 on this Greece speculation. This would be insane really as this would almost certainly lead to a Greek default. The speculation was brought about by an article on "Speigel Online" which I will post below:

The debt crisis in Greece has taken on a dramatic new twist. Sources with information about the government's actions have informed SPIEGEL ONLINE that Athens is considering withdrawing from the euro zone. The common currency area's finance ministers and representatives of the European Commission are holding a secret crisis meeting in Luxembourg on Friday night.


Greece's economic problems are massive, with protests against the government being held almost daily. Now Prime Minister George Papandreou apparently feels he has no other option: SPIEGEL ONLINE has obtained information from German government sources knowledgeable of the situation in Athens indicating that Papandreou's government is considering abandoning the euro and reintroducing its own currency.

Alarmed by Athens' intentions, the European Commission has called a crisis meeting in Luxembourg on Friday night. In addition to Greece's possible exit from the currency union, a speedy restructuring of the country's debt also features on the agenda. One year after the Greek crisis broke out, the development represents a potentially existential turning point for the European monetary union -- regardless which variant is ultimately decided upon for dealing with Greece's massive troubles.
Given the tense situation, the meeting in Luxembourg has been declared highly confidential, with only the euro-zone finance ministers and senior staff members permitted to attend. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Jörg Asmussen, an influential state secretary in the Finance Ministry, are attending on Germany's behalf.

'Considerable Devaluation'

Sources told SPIEGEL ONLINE that Schäuble intends to seek to prevent Greece from leaving the euro zone if at all possible. He will take with him to the meeting in Luxembourg an internal paper prepared by the experts at his ministry warning of the possible dire consequences if Athens were to drop the euro.

"It would lead to a considerable devaluation of the new (Greek) domestic currency against the euro," the paper states. According to German Finance Ministry estimates, the currency could lose as much as 50 percent of its value, leading to a drastic increase in Greek national debt. Schäuble's staff have calculated that Greece's national deficit would rise to 200 percent of gross domestic product after such a devaluation. "A debt restructuring would be inevitable," his experts warn in the paper. In other words: Greece would go bankrupt.

It remains unclear whether it would even be legally possible for Greece to depart from the euro zone. Legal experts believe it would also be necessary for the country to split from the European Union entirely in order to abandon the common currency. At the same time, it is questionable whether other members of the currency union would actually refuse to accept a unilateral exit from the euro zone by the government in Athens.

What is certain, according to the assessment of the German Finance Ministry, is that the measure would have a disastrous impact on the European economy.

"The currency conversion would lead to capital flight," they write. And Greece might see itself as forced to implement controls on the transfer of capital to stop the flight of funds out of the country. "This could not be reconciled with the fundamental freedoms instilled in the European internal market," the paper states. In addition, the country would also be cut off from capital markets for years to come.

In addition, the withdrawal of a country from the common currency union would "seriously damage faith in the functioning of the euro zone," the document continues. International investors would be forced to consider the possibility that further euro-zone members could withdraw in the future. "That would lead to contagion in the euro zone," the paper continues.

Banks at Risk

Moreover, should Athens turn its back on the common currency zone, it would have serious implications for the already wobbly banking sector, particularly in Greece itself. The change in currency "would consume the entire capital base of the banking system and the country's banks would be abruptly insolvent." Banks outside of Greece would suffer as well. "Credit institutions in Germany and elsewhere would be confronted with considerable losses on their outstanding debts," the paper reads.

The European Central Bank (ECB) would also feel the effects. The Frankfurt-based institution would be forced to "write down a significant portion of its claims as irrecoverable." In addition to its exposure to the banks, the ECB also owns large amounts of Greek state bonds, which it has purchased in recent months. Officials at the Finance Ministry estimate the total to be worth at least €40 billion ($58 billion) "Given its 27 percent share of ECB capital, Germany would bear the majority of the losses," the paper reads.
In short, a Greek withdrawal from the euro zone and an ensuing national default would be expensive for euro-zone countries and their taxpayers. Together with the International Monetary Fund, the EU member states have already pledged €110 billion ($159.5 billion) in aid to Athens -- half of which has already been paid out.

"Should the country become insolvent," the paper reads, "euro-zone countries would have to renounce a portion of their claims."

Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Stock buy: TAP

I initiated a buy in TAP, after it got hammered over 10% in the past 2 sessions, with support at 43, I'm looking for a short term bounce. If it doesn't look as if it is going to happen I'm out.

Entry: 44.45
Stop: 42.90
Target: 48

Tuesday, 3 May 2011

Closed: HITT

Well Bin Laden may have been killed, but so has the portfolio today as it has got a bit of a pounding.
I have decided to close HITT as it just looked like it couldn't break higher, and so after the 3.3% hit today on small volume, just decided to exit at 61.16, for a 4.2% gain overall after being up 10% at one point. Such is trading.

Entry: 58.70
Exit: 61.16

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...