Thursday, 28 July 2011

FTSE, Bund, Schatz and Euribor Analysis

Been a slow few days of trading, as we enter the usual summer lul. Getting chopped up in this market is easy and needs a lot of patience and discipline. Check the video below on some technical analysis and general thought on the Bond Markets.

Football Legend Cristiano Ronaldo To Be Used As ECB Collateral

I saw this on zero hedge and found it crazy! Here is the transcript below:

We were pretty much speechless when we read this - it sure puts guarantees by Noyer, Trichet and all the other bureaumonkeys that the ECB does not accept just any collateral in perspective. From Presseurop.eu: "The most expensive footballer in history may now be used to guarantee the solvency of a Spanish bank. “Ronaldo in the bailout fund,” headlines Süddeutsche Zeitung. The daily reports that the Bankia group of savings banks, which financed Real Madrid’s acquisition of the Portuguese player, is now seeking to borrow funds from the European Central Bank. In response to the ECB’s demand for guarantees, Bankio are putting up… Ronaldo and the Brazilian Kaka, who also plays for the Madrid football club. In 2009, Real borrowed 76.5 million euros to pay transfer fees of 100 millions euros to Manchester United, and 60 million to Milan AC."

“Could we see a situation in which the ECB seizes one of the players?“ wonders the Munich daily. “In theory, it is possible. Bankia would first have to become insolvent. Thereafter, Real would have to default on its loans, which are secured by advertising and television revenues. It goes without saying that Real Madrid is in debt to the tune of several million euros. However, in Spain football clubs have a history of obtaining publicly funded bailouts — just like the country’s banks.”
This is beyond even The Onion's (and even Zero Hedge's) level of sarcasm.

There is nothing that can be added to this insanity. Furthermore, the fact that the "collateral" most likely has a virulent case of Paris Hiltonitis which will infect all the other worthless collateral, likely leading to the latest and greatest reality TV show, only adds to the complete farce that the global ponzi scheme has now become.

Wednesday, 27 July 2011

Close position: TLEO

Closed TLEO as it hit my stop. Not been a good week for my stock picking as SNDK getting bashed too. Close to having to stop out in that as well.

Entry: 35.44
Exit: 33.10

Monday, 25 July 2011

Stock buy: SNDK

I went long today in SNDK at 45 after it having a strong run up recently and broke past resistance in the 44.85 region. Today we had a pull-back to test that and so has used this opportunity to enter. The market does look a bit overdone here but hopefully this will outperform.

Entry: 45.00
Target:54
Stop: 41

Thursday, 21 July 2011

Ftse 100, Bund, Schatz and Euribor Analysis - Greek Bailout?

Some mad movements in Bonds and equities today, on the back of Greece. As is always the case lately. Don't think its the end, but for now we coming off in bonds.

Euro pushes higher and Bunds fall on Greek rescue

The Euro has pushed up 180 ticks in the last couple of hours on talk of a Greek Debt buyback, as well as comments from the S&P ratings agency saying there is a 50/50 chance of a US downgrade in the next 3 months.
We also have GBP/USD hitting 1.6223, Breaks 1.62 Level For First Time Since June 22.
The Greek bailout talk has lead to a big sell of in Bunds as we are now down over 90 ticks for the day as I write.
We have support in the Bund at 127.23, 126.61, and resistance now at 127.74 and 128.33.

Still to come today we have Philly fed at 3pm UK time.

Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Stock buy: TLEO

I initiated a long position in TLEO today. Its in a downward channel yet has great growth potential. I have noticed the short selling interest has increased and with the current short interest it would take 13 days to fully cover, thus any sort of rebound could lead to further gains due to short covering. However with the market on edge another breakdown and ill be looking to exit.

Entry: 35.44
Stop: 33
Exit: 38

Bonds swing massively as Euro Tensions persist

We had some wild moves today in all futures and some break out spreads. Watch below for the breakdown

Friday, 8 July 2011

Non farm payroll leaked!

What a bad number that was, we had 18k jobs created as opposed to the 105k expected, this was even more of a surprise because ADP came out 80k jobs better, and every indicator on other numbers pointed to a good number.
But there was some very dodgy business going on as it seemed someone had it just before the number, its an absolute scam as those people have totally cleaned up illegally in my view, but theres nothing you can do I guess.
Below is the chart of the Bund and Eurostoxx.

As you can see we had a 50 tick spike up in the bund in the minute before the release and a 13 spike down in the Stoxx in the minute before the number and then we had the big move on the official release. I guess those in the know will always be ahead of us retail traders.

With this number I think we can get some type of correction after the monster rally we have had in stocks over the past week, so looking for weakness going forward.
Have a nice weekend

Thursday, 7 July 2011

Bund, Schatz and Euribor futures Trading

Close postion: TSO

Closed TSO today, as its pretty much flopped after a bright showing earlier on when it was 6% onside. but the recent massive rally in the market was too much of a force and with oil recovering, I had to bail.

Entry: 22.23
Exit: 24.69

Friday, 1 July 2011

Close position: PVA

Just closed out PVA, looking at the price action just feel like a right dog of a stock. Getting smashed down every time it shows some strength. I rather just be out since there is much better out there.

Entry:13.25
Exit:13.09

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...