Thursday, 18 August 2011

Futures Analysis: Bund, Schatz and Dax Spike

Another very volatile day which combined with low liquidity has mad for some very big moves. Bund has reach all time highs and we had a 120 point spike down in the Dax on 611 lots! Watch below as I analyse the latest moves.

Close position: SNDK

Closed out SNDK today at 34, it was very bad trading on my part, didn't stick to the rules, and paid the price as I took a 25% hit on this one. You live and learn...
Entry: 45.00
Exit:34.00

Wednesday, 10 August 2011

Mad Market Volatility - Dax, Bund, Schatz, Ftse

Just put this video together around 30 minutes ago and since then we have come off massively again in stocks. We bounced off the near term support in the Dax at 5721 but after bouncing 50 ticks we dropped another 100, such is the volatility lately.
The video looks at some of the wide ranges we have had lately.

Stock buy: GILD

Taking a little punt on this one. Managed to catch the spike down yesterday and willing to hold this for a bit unless we start capitulating in indices again.

Entry: 36.92
Target: 45
Stop:30

Monday, 8 August 2011

Stock Markets falling off a cliff

This looks like capitulation here. Aggressive selling, fundamentals thrown totally out the window and the whole thing looking rather ugly.
Unfortunatly I'm still long SNDK which is getting smashed, I'm hoping for some type of a big rally where profit taking occurs and we get a snap back in stocks so I can exit, as I think this has a long way to go. These snap backs can be as aggressive as the move down so be aware.
Bunds touched 134 again today, and Gold soaring to new highs, and on top of this we have riots in London, where it seems these thugs have just total disregard for the law. Things looking glum right now!

Saturday, 6 August 2011

Trading volatile markets

Cool video on actual traders trading the volatility over the past couple of days.
Watch The Wall Street Journal's A Trader's-Eye-View of Market's Wild Ride

USA downgraded!

It was inevitable, and I'm glad that the S&P had the balls to do it, Downgrade the US that is. With no credible plan to tackle the debt, and with the republicans not willing to raise taxes on the rich like all the other countries, this is the result.

Here is the S&P statement:
"The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability." What to expect on Monday: " it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021." And why all those who have said the downgrade will have no impact on markets will be tested as soon as Monday: "On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors."

Friday, 5 August 2011

Quiet August? I think not

So much for this being a quiet august. Infact thinking about it its not that surprising when this type of move has happened when many may be on vacation, liquidity much lower, so exadurating the moves. We have had some mega sell offs in the past few days and trading this morning open was frightening. There was literally no liquidity, making it very hard to trade anything big, and I have just been trading small to be on the safer side.

In terms of equites, its been a sorry sight for those long stocks, me included, I have seen some of my holding get murdered. Now where is the bottom, who knows, do you be brave and jump into some now, or will there still be another leg lower. We are still trading in the 11000s in the DOW and 1200s in the S&P so there still much more downside possible. Since I dont know the answer to any of these Im just going to stay back and wait for that capitulation moment.
Most likely will exit my SNDK position today as its well offside, I think its a good buy but you cant fight the general market sentiment so regardless of the fundamentals if there is fear, it aint going to hold up very well.
Non farm today will be mega volatile, no one really knows what to expect. So we see how it goes.
Good luck

Thursday, 4 August 2011

Futures Analysis: Bund Schatz Euribor Ftse Eurostoxx

Alot of volatility as concerns over countries debt levels continue. In the video below I look over some levels and discuss general ideas.

ECB to buy Bonds

In a volatile session, ECBs Trichet has said that the ECb has resumed its Bond buying, and has pledged to lend more money to Banks to stop the debt crisis spreading to Spain and Italy. Bonds have rallied massively with the Schatz hitting 109, and the Bund up 100 ticks.
In generral there is a very bearish tone to the market, with the Dax off 1000 points since last week, in an aggressive sell of amongst all indices.
Looks like a double dip to me, so will maintain my bearish stance.
Tomorrow we have Non Farm Payrolls, and anything but a good number I believe will send these markets into free fall. Either way it will be very interesting.

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...