Thursday, 29 September 2011

Futures Roundup: Bund Schatz Euribor Ftse Es

Below is look at the trends and ranges in Bund, Ftse, Es and Euribor spreads. Its been a very volatile period but more or less its trading in a big range.

Tuesday, 27 September 2011

We are going to Crash! Take your money out..

Well this is the view of a trader, Alessio Rostani who was on BBC news yesterday. It is quite funny as he is so frank about the whole thing, definitely worth a watch check it below:

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

Full Tilt Poker a Giant 'Ponzi Scheme'

This is according to the Feds. Further to the seizing of domains on this poker site Federal prosecutors said Tuesday that a popular online poker site already accused of money laundering and bank fraud operated essentially as a giant Ponzi scheme.

Full Tilt Poker and its board of directors, which includes some of the world’s most recognized players, “was not a legitimate poker company, but a global Ponzi scheme,” said Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in a statement.

Earlier this year, the Justice Department seized Full Tilt's domains and bank accounts as part of a broad investigation into illegal online gambling that included allegations of money laundering and bank fraud.


In an amendment to the original complaint filed in April, prosecutors now allege that Full Tilt Poker and its board of directors, including the well-known players Howard Lederer and Christopher Ferguson, lied to players about the status of their online accounts.

The funds in those accounts were supposed to remain untouched and available for withdrawal at any time, according to the complaint. But that wasn't the case.

Instead, Full Tilt Poker didn’t have enough in those accounts to repay players, and, moreover, used whatever funds it could collect to pay board members and other company executives more than $440 million since April 2007.

“Full Tilt insiders lined their own pockets with funds picked from the pockets of their most loyal customers while blithely lying to both players and the public alike about the safety and security of the money deposited with the company,” said Bharara

The government said Full Tilt continued to plunge into the accounts despite the efforts of government investigators to shut down the complex methods in which money flowed from online players accounts’ to bank accounts managed by the company’s executives.

Even as the money was flowing improperly to top company executives, the company continued to assure players that their money was safe, prosecutors said.

“Not only did the firm orchestrate a massive fraud against the U.S. banking system, as previously alleged, Full Tilt also cheated and abused its own players to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars,” Bharara said in the statement.

On March 31, Full Tilt Poker owed about $390 million to players around the world, including about $150 million to players in the U.S., the complaint states. But at the time the company had only $60 million in its bank accounts. Prosecutors said the company still owes players over $300 million.

The April indictments targeted executives at Full Tilt and two other popular online poker sites, Absolute Poker and PokerStars.net.

Thursday, 15 September 2011

Central Banks Intervene

Fears of a deepening of Europe's debt crisis have prompted the world's leading central banks to pump US dollars into the financial system, in a co-ordinated action designed to boost market confidence.

The Bank of England joined the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan on Thursday to announce that they would flood money markets with dollars over the coming months.

The move, on the third anniversary of the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, sent shares soaring in banks heavily exposed to debt default by Greece and the other struggling members of the 17-nation eurozone.

Under the terms of the deal, banks will be able to bid for unlimited amounts of US dollars at fixed interest rates in three separate auctions. The first of these will be on 12 October.

Watch Below to see Market Reaction from the move

Rogue trader alert at UBS

UBS has started European trading off on the wrong track. 'Astonishingly', coming clean to a USD2bn loss on the back of unauthorized trading.No detail has been given on the type of trade but the Bloomberg headlines, UBS equity price crash, and the initial reaction was clear:

*UBS SAYS TRADING LOSS OF $2 BLN :UBSN VX

*UBS CITES UNAUTHORIZED TRADE IN INVESTMENT BANK :UBSN VX

*UBS SAYS MAY MAKE LOSS IN THIRD QUARTER BECAUSE OF TRADE

*UBS SAYS NO CLIENT POSITIONS AFFECTED :UBSN VX

*UBS SAYS MATTER IS STILL BEING INVESTIGATED :UBSN VX

*UBS DROPS 9.2% IN ZURICH TRADING

However we have now rallied to highs in stock indicies despite the news. Its a good job these bankers got, its like a free 1 million buck chip. Take a punt, it works out you get paid big, if it doesn't you lose your job. Good life of a banker!

Click HERE for a look at past rogue traders

Wednesday, 14 September 2011

Europe to introduce Eurobonds?

Market action has been very volatile to say the least, as Bunds finally lose some ground on the back of the chance of a Eurobond. Such action lead to a pop up in the Euro as well as equities as they reversed earlier losses.
Here is an extract from Barroso:

European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said he will put forward moves to tackle the eurozone debt crisis, which he called "the most serious challenge of a generation".

He said he would urge the 17 eurozone nations to issue joint bonds, allowing them to borrow money collectively.

Eurobonds have been backed by Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti and investor George Soros.

However, Germany has repeatedly expressed its opposition to the idea.

His comments came ahead of an emergency conference call between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou due later on Wednesday.

The three are expected to discuss how to address recent market turmoil, prompted by fears of an imminent Greek debt default.

'Federalist moment'
"I want to confirm that the Commission will soon present options for the introduction of eurobonds," he said.

"Some of these could be implemented within the terms of the current treaty, and others would require treaty changes."

However, Mr Barroso emphasised that the measure on its own was not enough to solve the eurozone debt crisis.

(Taken from BBC)

Friday, 9 September 2011

Post ECB reaction - Bund, Ftse

We had another move up in the Bund yesterday with yields getting even lower to mad levels, which suggests, its all about taking risk of the table.
Below is a review of the action over the past few weeks.

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

Close position: GILD

Closed out GILD today as it looks as if its sticking around this 40 level and I'm not convinced we going higher.

Open: 36.92
Close:39.55

Tuesday, 6 September 2011

SWISS Bank intervention!

We had a huge move in the Swiss Franc today as the SNB said they are:
- Ready to buy foreign currencies in unlimited amounts, as the Swiss Franc is way overvalued.
- They say it will defined its FX target with UTMOST DETERMINATION.
- SNB Says Franc appreciations posing deflation risks
- SNB sets minimum exchange rate at 1.20 per Euro


This caused some of the biggest moves I've seen with the Eur/Chf rising over 800 pips and usd/Chf by some 500 pips. The SMI also rallied by up to 5% which in tern dragged other indices up with it.

Below is the chart of the EUR/CHF

Friday, 2 September 2011

Non Farm Payrolls disappoint

No jobs created in August in the US that was the grim picture today that was setting the markets back as the Dow is off some 200 points. Below are some of the key points:
Key Highlights:

At 0, the NFP number is a plunge of 85K, from a downward revised July, which was previously at 117. This is the biggest drop since September 2010
The Household Survey saw an increase of 331K in the number of employed
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 3 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.09. This decline followed an 11-cent gain in July. This is the first time the avg hourly earnings have been negative MoM since January 2008
Underemployment, U-6, rose to 16.2%, from 16.1% in July
The labor force rose to 153.6 million in August.
Ironically the only good news in the report, was what many have been indicating is a negative for months: namely that the Labor Force Participation rate actually rose for the first time in months from the nearly 30 year low of 63.9% to 64.0%

Below is a video of the market moves made in the Bund, Ftse and S&P

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...