Friday, 17 February 2012

Yield curve Analysis

After the uncertainties surrounding Greece has made for some difficult trading conditions, there has till been some good opportunities that has arisen from trading some spreads.
On the shorter end the Euribor-Shatz has come off a high after the shatz finally started to move.
For further details view below:


In terms of the longer end of the yield curve, the 2s 10s spread which is a good representation of this yield curve, we are getting some pretty big moves, with some good opportunities when the Bund reaches the 139 area, with the Shatz being quite subdued in its movement. The curve has been flattening as is expected, but some high probability opportunities have been there. Watch below to see what the spread has been doing.

Tuesday, 14 February 2012

MF Global News

I was shown a great resource for MF Global news, especially for UK clients.
Check out the site: http://mfgukclients.org/

Monday, 13 February 2012

Greeks pass austerity measures - Bund trades lower

On Thursday we had a dip of almost 100 ticks to sub 137 in the Bund as seemed the Greeks passed there austerity measures, on friday we rallied up back above 138, and as high of 138.70 as it was now apparent that they will not agree to pass these measures as there was mass protests by the Greek people. Finally over the weekend the vote was passed and we drop 100 ticks again in the Bund and now trading 137.78.
Now where we go next is anyones guess in this casino we call the market. Its hard to form a medium term view as we are held hostage by the Greek indecision. Technicals go out the water some what as another rejection could push this higher again. We seem to have found an area of value in the 137.70-80 region as this has been an area of significant trade over the past week.
Like many I dont think this is by any way finished and we will continue to have volatility in the bund on the back of continuing comments coming out the Greeks, the EU and IMF and I suspect that we will once again trade back into the 138s, even 139s in the Bund again at some point soon.

Friday, 3 February 2012

TED Spread Update (Shatz Euribor)

Watch below for an update in the moves of the TED spread

Strong Non Farm leads to Bond Sell Off

We had a very big beat today in Non Farm payrolls as we came in at 243k Jobs created for January as well as higher revisions for the previous 2 months. This goes against the doom and gloom painted by Ben Bernanke yesterday. We had a fall in the Bund of 120 ticks since the number as rate hike chances have been bought forward. IF data continues to improve then its more likely then not that the markets expectations for change in monetary policy will be bought forward, and hopefully this will spice up the trading activity in the short end as right now its very flat.
Watch below to see some of todays action in the Bund:

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...