Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Market falls Sharply on Twitter Hack!

It was just past 6pm UK time, when there was a flash on the newswires that the white house got bombed twice and Obama was injured!
This is what happened to the ES mini futures.

In those 5 minutes over 260K contracts were traded!! The ES dropped 16 fat ticks on the move, the Dow dropped 120, and it was caused by someone hacking the Associated Press twitter feed.
The notional value of this was around 20 billion!
Now those guys cleaned up hard on it, the fact the market can be so easily manipulated like this is a cause for concern, and just shows how messed up this market really is.

The so-called "Syrian Electronic Army," a group of pro-regime hackers, is claiming credit for hacking AP's official Twitter feeds.

This appears to be the organization's third successful hack of an American media outlet in just over one week. Over the weekend, the group claimed credit for similar attacks on Twitter feeds run by CBS News, and last week, the group successfully attacked NPR's content management system and Twitter feed. 

Friday, 19 April 2013

Subdued Week For STIR Spreads

We have seen some pretty wild swings in the Equity space as well as commodities, as we have had huge spikes down in GOLD in particularly. Bunds have breached 146 again as risk appetite wains.
However STIR spreads have remained static. Low volume, low interest, and a slight downward trend.
We are trading at the lowest levels in these spreads, and my first thought is just to buy buy buy. However its a matter of patience as there is no real push one way or the other and so being able to day trade it is near on impossible.
I had got long 4s and 3.5 in Jun14Sep14, long 4.5s in Sep14Dec14, long MarJun14 at 5.5 and 5 and long 6s in Jun15Sep15, and managed to eek out 1/2 tick in some and scratch the rest, but this was done over a period of 4 days which is the furthest thing from day trading. There will be a day soon where some catalyst will push these spreads up, when it will be I dont know, but this situation has happened before. The potential jump up in the spreads will be the perfect opportunity to short.
As I right its still dead as anything, cant imagine much to change that but you never know.

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Leaking Data Early - Not Really Surprised!

I've been beating on about leaked data for quite a while now and the recent allegations of a KPMG senior partner divulging insider info show a peek into whats happening. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22087201)
We know have a case with a Thomson Reuters employee. Read below: There is plenty of it out there, but at least the authorities are getting some penetration into this.

Reuters) - A former Thomson Reuters Corp employee has filed a lawsuit saying he was fired for telling the Federal Bureau of Investigation that he believed the company violated insider-trading laws in releasing a consumer sentiment survey early to some subscribers.
In the lawsuit, filed on Wednesday in Manhattan federal court, Mark Rosenblum said he was terminated after telling U.S. authorities that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers was released at different times to different subscribers.
"We believe the accusations from the complainant against Thomson Reuters to be unsubstantiated and without merit, and we will defend against them vigorously," a company spokesman said in a statement.
Rosenblum said in his court papers that Thomson Reuters releases the monthly survey to so-called "ultra low-latency" subscribers at two seconds before 9:55 a.m. ET, to "desktop" subscribers at 9:55 a.m., and to the general public at 10 a.m.
In the financial services industry, low latency is a reference to higher speed services often used by high-frequency traders.
Rosenblum said in the court papers that last June 29, he told an unnamed FBI agent that he believed this "tiered release" violated federal securities laws, and that on the same day he told company executives that he had contacted federal investigators about the matter.
In the lawsuit, Rosenblum said he was fired on August 3 from his job as a redistribution specialist, without severance, for engaging in protected whistleblowing activity under the 2010 Dodd-Frank law. He is seeking unspecified compensatory and punitive damages.
Jesse Rose, a lawyer for Rosenblum, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
FBI spokesman Jim Margolin declined to comment.
The case is Rosenblum v. Thomson Reuters (Markets) LLC, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 13-02219.

There is plenty of it out there, but at least the authorities are getting some penetration into this.

Monday, 8 April 2013

Non Farms Disappoints

On Friday we had a big miss in Non Farm Payrolls, with 88k Jobs created in the US when expectations where for 190k. We came off in Equities as you expect and Bonds rallied.  But this didnt last for long as the US markets rallied into the close and ended down a fraction of what it was down earlier. Today we are rallying so what does that tell you?
Well Bunds are above 146, highest in months, the Yield curve is flatter then ever, but Stocks continue to rise, and this is because now it is very unlikely that there will be any tightening as far as monetary policy goes for a long time still, and so cheap money remains, and since Yields are so low in other asset classes, Equities seem to make sense as there are good dividend paying stocks which will yield you much better returns then the 1.X% you will get with Uk, German or US 10 years.

Looking at Euribor Spreads we trading at the bottom of the range for pretty much all 3 month Spreads, which make buying the only logical Trade for me personally right now, but with reduced volumes and volatility, its a matter of waiting it out.
Im currently long 0s in Mar14Jun14 in Short Sterling, and long 1s in Jun14Sep14 Short Sterling.
Looking forward, there's not much in terms of data this week, so mite be pretty quiet, so hoping for some other news to spice things up!

Friday, 5 April 2013

When leaked data doesn't work out so well!

I have been seeing Nat Gas data leaked pretty much every time, but yesterdays number is one where it didn't work out so well. As usual a few seconds before the number Nat Gas Spiked seconds before the official release on what ended up a slight drawn down in storage. However we then had a 90 tick spike down, which cant have been nice for those long, and continued downside ensued.

Although this doesn't take away from the fact that data is getting leaked alot more, or people are making it much more obvious that they know the number.

Short Sterling spreads nudge higher on hawkish Fed; Walmart blowout

As most must know trading Short Sterling is a bit of a bore, and has been for a while. Having managed to get out of my 2 month hold before,...